It is now almost universally accepted that the UK is heading inexorably towards a hung parliament. Even if the Conservatives win the most votes, Labour could still take the most seats, leaving the Liberal Democrats with a moral argument for bestowing the crown upon the head of the leader of whichever party offered them the most... which is likely to include a demand for PR, appointing Vince Cable as Chancellor and something very meaty indeed for Nick Clegg.
According to the received wisdom, the surge for the Liberal Democrats is due to them attracting the 'anti-politics' vote.
Cranmer is not so sure.
Why would the British people deposit their collective protest vote into the ballot box hands for another banal mediocrity who is promising even more of more-of-the-same? He may deride the Conservatives and Labour for being 'the old parties', but the Liberals have a heritage which predates Labour, and you couldn't get much older than yet another high-taxing, high-spending, centralising, statist, europhile party.
And that is what the Liberal Democrats are.
No. If the British people were to protest in revolutionary terms, with their customary 'glorious' and bloodless zeal, they would vote for real 'anti-political' outsiders - like millions did during the Euro elections last year. When UKIP came second, and the BNP vote soared in Labour heartlands, that ought to have sent a very clear message to all three 'mainstream' political parties: the electorate has concerns which you are failing to address.
It didn't.
Sadly, Screaming Lord Sutch and his Official Monster Raving Loony Party are no more. Perhaps that is a good thing, for if he were alive today, he would be in with as good a chance of entering Downing Street as H'Angus the monkey had of winning the mayoralty of Hartlepool.
Dissenting Tories tend to cast their protest vote for UKIP; in the Euro election, we saw tens of thousands of disaffected Labour supporters cast their votes for the BNP. The Liberal Democrats were not the beneficiaries of the 2009 anti-politics protest. And Dan Hannan is incredulous that they should be now.
He notes the exasperation of an electorate depressed by the omnipotence of the EU and despondent over uncontrollable immigration, and wonders why sensible, discerning and intelligent people would ever cast their votes for the most pro-Brussels party which also happens to want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants who have managed to evade deportation for ten years.
The only parties which are prioritising these policies are UKIP and the BNP. UKIP favour British withdrawal from the EU and have become increasingly vocal about Muslims and burkas; the BNP also favour British withdrawal from the EU and have a rather robust immigration policy of 'No more - we're full'. Frankly, the policies of these parties on health, education, transport, defence and criminal justice have never been scrutinised, but it's a fair bet that they wouldn't be too divergent. Since UKIP are of the 'right' and the BNP of the 'left', there are a few differences over taxation and the economy. But so there are between the Conservatives and the LibDems, and between Labour and the LibDems.
And yet neither Gordon Brown nor David Cameron has ruled out a coalition with Nick Clegg, however repulsed they may be by the very thought.
So, perhaps Lord Pearson and Nick Griffin should also set aside their ideological differences (which are nowhere near as diametrically opposed to each other as those of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats) and prepare for a coalition government. Since the 'Cleggmania' phenomenon has been fabricated by the media, and since Mr Griffin and Lord Pearson have been denied their leaders' debates, they need to do something to garner the very considerable support both achieved last year, sidelined, as both are, by media conspiracy.
David Cameron is right to offer 'change'. But as long as the electorate don't quite 'get it', there is a risk that a plague of fatigue will descend upon both houses of the 'old parties'. Neither the BNP nor UKIP is palatable to millions for very many sound reasons, and only the misguided will vote for them in this General Election. But only a fool would cast their 'anti-politics' protest vote for the Liberal Democrats. A hung parliament may be a novelty, but there is no surer way of ensuring more of the same.
